September 2009

Today’s New York Times has an article about the oil industry which is interesting for its perspective. “More than 200 oil discoveries have been reported so far in 2009 in dozens of countries,” it says. These, “have totaled about 10 billion barrels in the first half of the year.”

But to put this in perspective we should remember that the production rate for 2008 (the amount extracted for use) was 24 billion barrels per year. In order to keep up with demand at today’s levels, the oil industry would HAVE to find new reserves in the amount of 24 billion barrels EACH year. To say that they’ve found 10 billion this year is only saying that they have added 5 months to the end-date of total depletion.

See the table below for a summary by country via. The total figure at the bottom in bbl/day of production is 63.5 million (x 365 days = 24 billion per year):

So how did the article parse these facts?

It is normal for companies to discover billions of barrels of new oil every year, but this year’s pace is unusually brisk. New oil discoveries have totaled about 10 billion barrels in the first half of the year, according to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. If discoveries continue at that pace through year-end, they are likely to reach the highest level since 2000.

If discovering just enough extra to keep up with one year’s worth of 2008 global demand is referred to as “the highest level” and “unusually brisk” then we are surely deluding ourselves. And there is no mention of whether the discoveries are “proved” or not. They may be unrecoverable, or only partially recoverable.

BP actually has a quite honest assessment of the facts on its website. They note that actually:

Global proved oil reserves in 2008 fell by 3 billion barrels to 1,258 billion barrels, with an R/P ratio of 42 years.

If BP’s own estimates are at a reserve to production ratio of 42 years, then we can be sure that they are being conservative in their numbers. We may not have but 25 years until the cost of speculation and the increased resources required for more complicated recovery make the entire system collapse under the weight of market price instability. And please keep in mind that:

…proved reserves include an official estimate of oil sands ‘under active development’.

To include in the proved calculations reserves that will require severe ecological destruction, waste of water resources, and a cost per barrel at least twice that of conventional production is a bit self-deceiving.

Actually, if you look at the breakdown of the proved reserve types, only 30% is conventional oil. The other 70% requires more energy and natural resources to recover and will therefore be more expensive on the market.


With 1,258 billion barrels of oil proved recoverable reserves in the world, what is the value of the discovery of 10 billion more? It is less than 8/10 of one percent. By 2020 we will be using about 30 billion barrels per year, so the oil industry would have to discover three times as much each year (proven!) just to keep up. The bottom line is that the peak oil chart has not changed even a hairline. All that I’m saying is that preparing for an oil-free future that is all too close should probably not include front page coverage regarding new unproved discoveries.

Below is the list of confirmed jurors for the upcoming competition. This international panel of esteemed individuals are leaders in their fields. They were chosen because we believe they will offer a truly interdisciplinary approach to the judging process with the highest standards. We are delighted and honored to have them involved with the Land Art Generator Initiative.

Interdisciplinary Arts

Jennifer Leonard
Interdisciplinary Project Leader at IDEO
Co-author of Massive Change (with Bruce Mau)

Jeanette Ingberman
Co-Founder/Director, Exit Art, NYC

Lauren Rosati
Assistant Curator, Exit Art, NYC

Jonah Brucker-Cohen
Researcher, artist and fellow in the Disruptive Design Team of the NTRG
Adjunct Assistant Professor of communications at NYU’s ITP

Jenna Didier & Oliver Hess
Directors, Materials & Applications (www.emanate.org), architecture and landscape research
principals, Didier Hess (www.didierhess.com), public art studio.

Architecture

Brett Steele
Director of the Architectural Association School of Architecture and AA Publications, London

Alice Chan
Manager of Architecture Masdar City, Abu Dhabi

Christopher Prelitz
Chief Sustainability Officer
New Leaf America, Inc., Laguna Beach, California

Urban Planning

Lukáš Sokol
Architect and Urban Planner at the Urban Planning Council (UPC) of Abu Dhabi

Science

Georgeta Vidican, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi

Ecoart

Beth Carruthers
Independent Curator
Consultant, Arts and Sustainability Instructor, Critical & Cultural Studies - Continuing Studies, Emily Carr University, Vancouver

Sustainable Development

Dr. Mohamed H. Newera, P.E., MBA
Masdar Delivery and Design Divisions Director, Abu Dhabi

Reuben Andrews
Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), Dubai

Architectural Journalism

Michiel van Raaij
Editor Eikongraphia, Publisher architectenweb.nl

click to enlarge

We have been delighted at the popularity of the graphic that we posted a month ago. Now it is available in a poster size pdf for download! Click here, or on the thumbnails to the right to download.

If you download the poster for your use, we ask that you please donate some small token amount by clicking the donate button in the sidebar to the right. Your donation will go toward the prize money that we are currently raising for the design competition.

Thanks!

click to enlarge

We now have a poster size version of this infographic showing the era of fossil fuels as compared with the long and awesome human history. It shows how the carbon fuel era is only a very brief interlude, and makes evident that the choices that we make today will have an impact on what happens on the other side of what is really an exception to the ongoing state of affairs. Click here, or on the thumbnails to the right to download.

If you download the poster for your use, we ask that you please donate some small token amount by clicking the donate button on the right sidebar. Your donation will go toward the prize money that we are currently raising for the design competition.

Thanks!

We’ve done a little re-arranging over here at LAGI virtual headquarters. As you can see from the navigation bar at the top of the page we have a new link “Competition Site” on the far right-hand side. There you will find the project schedule and a list of confirmed jurors that we have on board so far. We are pleased to have so much positive feedback from such an esteemed cast of professionals. It is truly an international and multidisciplinary set.

This blog will continue to be dedicated to discussions of sustainability, cleantech, energy experiments, and the environmental arts movement.

The competition will be entirely on-line via the competition site portal (this way it is a ‘green’ as possible: no flying people in, no printing of boards and mailing, etc.).

The jury will also be conducting their selection process on a secure site. All entries will appear anonymously to them. In this way we can engage the good opinion of a larger number of thinkers and arrive at a very valid and practical result. The complete brief and guidelines will be available on December 7, 2009. It will have all of the information about the process, procedures, and criteria.

Think big for this project. The brief is being finalized, but the sites that are being considered are vast expanses of landscape. It is the intention to be bold and beautiful and capture the minds of those who could see the value of the projects from the perspective of a developer and a municipal planner.

You are submitting ideas to forward the cause of sustainability and the pragmatic movement of the arts so as to contribute to a future of aesthetic infrastructure. As we move towards greater microgeneration and localized distribution of infrastructure, it will necessarily be more visible to us on a daily basis. Gone will be the gas or coal-fired power plant miles from the outskirts of town with its rusty chain-link fence and dirty bellowing stacks. renewable energy plants will be increasingly located in our neighborhoods and in our city centers, even integrated with buildings themselves.

We see the development of land art generator projects as a part of this greater endeavor. It is a way to show that energy can be beautiful and conceptually challenging. That it can be more than just itself and can speak to people on multiple levels of meaning. By creating works of art that solve practical problems we can at once engage minds, solve problems, and lift the arts.

We will have prize money, the exact amounts of which we are not 100% sure on, as we are continuing to gain pledges of financial support. It will not be insignificant — we are interested in making this attractive to talented people and we understand the value of your time.